2023, Volume 16, Issue 2

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Ex-ante analysis of macro-regional development in the Visegrad countries, with special emphasis on some turbulent periods / Analiza ex-ante rozwoju makroregionalnego w krajach Grupy Wyszehradzkiej, ze szczególnym uwzględnieniem wybranych okresów gwałtownych zmian

(Akademia Bialska im. Jana Pawła II, 2023-06-29) Kocziszky, György ; Szendi, Dóra

Subject and purpose of work: Monitoring the development of a given region and forecasting its potential changes is an evergreen topic in regional economic analysis. The aim of the current work is to analyse the development path of four Central-Eastern-European countries and create short term forecast for their development. Materials and methods: The authors discuss and test an autoregressive model for short-run, ex-ante assessment of spatial development using data from four CEE countries (Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary). Results: The research shows that the initial (1995-2021) development trajectories of the countries were still determined by the shocks of the transition period that started after 1990. The analysis shows that further development is essentially determined by inflationary pressures and changes in fiscal and monetary conditions. Conclusions: The analysis shows that after a recovery period of 1.5-2 years, the countries could be back on the path of development from 2024 but starting from a lower level and at a more modest pace.